Futures are green this morning. The Dow is up 298 points in premarket. And the headlines about the Iran-US War sound like (tentative) progress. Today we’re covering how this weekend’s developments affect your portfolio when the Nasdaq 100 is down 11% and the S&P is down almost 9% since all-time highs.

Trump posted on Truth Social overnight that "great progress has been made" in negotiations, but in the same breath, he threatened to "completely obliterate" Iran's oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened.

And he told the Financial Times his "preference would be to take the oil."

Seems like classic carrot and stick, but markets are buying the carrot this morning and opening in the green… and we think that's worth paying attention to.

More below.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Three things matter from the last 72 hours.

First, Trump’s deadline for Iran got pushed back. He originally gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then extended it to five days, and on Thursday extended it again to 10 days, setting a new deadline of April 6. Each extension has been paired with tougher language but softer action (TACO trade, anyone?). That pattern is what has futures green this morning: both sides appear to want more time at the table, not less.

Second, Trump is now openly talking about seizing Iran's oil. He told the Financial Times that between peace and a forceful approach, taking Iran's oil is his "preference,” and he floated a potential ground operation to seize Kharg Island, the hub that handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports. Whether this is negotiating leverage or actual policy, it puts a floor under oil prices and keeps the energy trade alive.

Third, the conflict widened. Yemen's Houthis officially entered the war Saturday, firing missiles at Israel. Iran struck a U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia for the second time this week, injuring 29 American soldiers. And thousands of additional U.S. troops arrived in the region over the weekend. More players, more troops, more complexity.

So: progress on the diplomatic track, escalation on the military track. Markets are choosing to focus on the diplomacy today.

Here's the scoreboard after one month. Brent crude is up over 55% in March, on pace for its steepest monthly rise on record. Bond traders have completely scrapped their 2026 Fed rate cut bets. Goldman raised recession odds to 30% and its inflation forecast to 2.5%. Gas is averaging $3.94 at the pump.

But here's the thing nobody's saying out loud: the Nasdaq 100 is now 11.44% off its October highs. The S&P 500 is 8.44% below its January peak.

Now, this is just our opinion, but that doesn’t look like doom and gloom to us… it looks more like a discount. We’re not promising things will go up from here, just saying that buying major index funds at these prices feels better than buying at all-time highs.

Back to oil: Goldman's base case has Brent averaging $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming the Hormuz disruption lasts about six weeks. If that timeline holds, the oil shock reprices quickly and a lot of what's been dragging on stocks reverses. The deadline extension to April 6 fits that window.

We're not going to pretend we can call the bottom. Nobody can. But again, we'd much rather be putting money to work at 8-11% off all-time highs than at all-time highs. History is pretty clear on that.

Here's Morgan Stanley's full framework for positioning through the oil shock →

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Friday's jobs report will headline a busy week after whiplash readings of 130,000 jobs added in January and 92,000 lost in February. Economists expect 50,000 jobs added in March, with Goldman estimating higher oil prices will reduce payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through year-end.

Consumer sentiment hit its lowest since December, per University of Michigan data. Gas prices are within three cents of $4 per gallon, and Conference Board readings on Tuesday will give another temperature check on American anxiety levels.

Bond markets are pricing in a more hawkish Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.48%, its highest since July. Short-term yields have diverged from oil prices, suggesting markets expect tighter monetary policy ahead rather than cuts.

Energy security is reshaping the transition away from oil, with strategists arguing the Iran crisis proves fossil fuels remain vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. "The energy transition never had anything to do with climate change... Security was always paramount," said Carlyle's chief strategy officer at CERAWeek.

A prediction market scandal is brewing after blockchain analysis uncovered linked accounts that pocketed $1.6 million betting on President Trump's Iran and Venezuela moves with perfect timing. A separate academic study flagged $143 million in trades on Polymarket showing patterns consistent with insider information. Republican senators are now pushing for stricter oversight.

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc