šŸ“… This week will determine the market for 2024

šŸ“œ What will tech titans and the PCE reveal?

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šŸ“° Market Headlines

  • The S&P fell under 5,000 on Friday, capping off a week spent on edge.

  • Colossal week for anyone reading economic tea leaves:

    • Tech Titans Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla announce earnings. Weā€™ll see if they can help break last weekā€™s slump.

    • The Fedā€™s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, comes out Friday. Analysts expect it to remain steady at 0.3% from last month. Anything higher will send the market into a tailspin.

  • The House passed aĀ $95 billion foreign aid packageĀ for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which now heads to the Senate for a vote.

  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed's restrictive policy is "appropriate" given economic strength andĀ persistent inflation. [Ed: Heā€™s changed his tune from a couple of months ago\

šŸ•¶ļø Market Vibes

šŸŽ° Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ā€‹Kalshiā€‹, the prediction market.

šŸ˜± Fear and Greed Index

šŸŽ¤ What you said last time

Slightly bearish here but not as much as I expected, to be honest.

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šŸ“ˆ Trends you need to know

Boeing reports earnings on Wednesday. In February, we showed you how to build an options trade to take advantage of a potential drop to $165 after the call. We hope you make some money.

šŸ§  What do you think?

šŸ’¬ Have your say

Tech titans announce earnings this week. Whoā€™s going to post the best quarter?

Meta:

Bull Case: Meta could beat earnings by leveraging its investments in the metaverse and virtual reality markets.

Bear Case: Meta might miss earnings due to increased competition and privacy concerns impacting user growth.

Alphabet:

Bull Case: Alphabet may exceed expectations driven by the growth of its advertising business and cloud division.

Bear Case: Alphabet could fall short of expectations due to regulatory scrutiny and intensified competition in advertising.

Microsoft:

Bull Case: Microsoft might outperform expectations with strong growth in Azure and gaming, including the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Bear Case: Microsoft could miss earnings due to cloud competition, regulatory challenges, and uncertain returns from metaverse investments.

Tesla:

Bull Case: Tesla could beat earnings with continued EV market growth and advancements in autonomous driving technology.

Bear Case: Tesla might miss earnings due to increased EV competition, production challenges, and uncertain returns from metaverse investments.

Which company will post the best quarter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

šŸ“Š Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • American ExpressĀ Q1 revenue jumped 11%, beating estimates and jolting stock prices up 6.2%.

  • An action-packed week of earnings. Here's who's reporting:

    • Monday:Ā Albertsons (ACI), Nucor (NUE), SAP (SAP), Verizon (VZ)

    • Tuesday:Ā General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), JetBlue (JBLU), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mattel (MAT), PepsiCo (PEP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Spotify (SPOT),Tesla (TSLA), UPS (UPS), Visa (V)

    • Wednesday:Ā Meta Platforms (META), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Chipotle (CMG), Ford (F), Humana (HUM), ADP (ADP), eBay (EBAY), Hilton (HLT), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW)

    • Thursday:Ā Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), American Airlines (AAL), AstraZeneca (AZN), Intel (INTC), Roku (ROKU), Snap (SNAP), Southwest (LUV), T-Mobile (TMUS)

    • Friday:Ā Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate (CL)

Market movers

  • NvidiaĀ plummeted 10% Friday, its worst day since March 2020, after Super Micro Computer delayed earnings.

  • TeslaĀ slashed prices across its lineup in China, Germany, and other major markets after recent US cuts.

  • CNHĀ appointed Iveco Group's Gerrit Marx as its new CEO starting July 1 to replace Scott Wine.

  • UBS announced plans to lay off 50-60% of Credit Suisse staff following the takeover.

  • NikeĀ plans to lay off 740 employees at its Beaverton, Oregon headquarters by June 28.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • Freddie Mac slashed itsĀ home price forecastĀ for 2024 and 2025.

  • The US dollarĀ ralliedĀ to a 5-month high as surprisingly robust economic data bolstered the case for the Fed to keep rates elevated.

  • The global space economy is projected toĀ skyrocket to $1.8 trillionĀ by 2035, a 9% annual growth rate outpacing global GDP.

šŸŒ Global Perspectives

  • šŸ‡®šŸ‡³ India's multi-week election kicked off with Prime Minister Narendra ModiĀ widely expectedĀ to secure a third consecutive term in office.

  • šŸ‡®šŸ‡·Ā šŸ‡®šŸ‡± Iran played down reported Israeli attacks and signaledĀ no retaliation, a response gauged towards averting region-wide war.

  • šŸ‡µšŸ‡¹Ā šŸ‡³šŸ‡¦ Portuguese oil company Galp Energia said the Mopane field could contain at leastĀ 10 billion barrelsĀ of oil.

  • šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ Major rivers and reservoirs in China's Guangdong province are threatening to unleashĀ dangerous floods.

šŸ“Š Crypto

  • Bitcoin's fourth halvingĀ slashedĀ miner rewards to 3.125 BTC per block. Price volatility preceded the event, with BTC falling 4%.

  • Bitcoin miners areĀ diversifying into AIĀ and upgrading power centers to brace for the 50% revenue cut post-halving.

  • Hong Kong's Victory SecuritiesĀ disclosed feesĀ ranging from 0.15% to 1% for its proposed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

šŸ§  Errata

šŸ“ŗ What to Watch Today

Thatā€™s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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