📅 This week will determine the market for 2024

📜 What will tech titans and the PCE reveal?

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📰 Market Headlines

  • The S&P fell under 5,000 on Friday, capping off a week spent on edge.

  • Colossal week for anyone reading economic tea leaves:

    • Tech Titans Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla announce earnings. We’ll see if they can help break last week’s slump.

    • The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, comes out Friday. Analysts expect it to remain steady at 0.3% from last month. Anything higher will send the market into a tailspin.

  • The House passed a $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which now heads to the Senate for a vote.

  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed's restrictive policy is "appropriate" given economic strength and persistent inflation. [Ed: He’s changed his tune from a couple of months ago\

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🎤 What you said last time

Slightly bearish here but not as much as I expected, to be honest.

And you’re actually far more bearish than the prediction markets at Kalshi.

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📈 Trends you need to know

Boeing reports earnings on Wednesday. In February, we showed you how to build an options trade to take advantage of a potential drop to $165 after the call. We hope you make some money.

🧠 What do you think?

💬 Have your say

Tech titans announce earnings this week. Who’s going to post the best quarter?

Meta:

Bull Case: Meta could beat earnings by leveraging its investments in the metaverse and virtual reality markets.

Bear Case: Meta might miss earnings due to increased competition and privacy concerns impacting user growth.

Alphabet:

Bull Case: Alphabet may exceed expectations driven by the growth of its advertising business and cloud division.

Bear Case: Alphabet could fall short of expectations due to regulatory scrutiny and intensified competition in advertising.

Microsoft:

Bull Case: Microsoft might outperform expectations with strong growth in Azure and gaming, including the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Bear Case: Microsoft could miss earnings due to cloud competition, regulatory challenges, and uncertain returns from metaverse investments.

Tesla:

Bull Case: Tesla could beat earnings with continued EV market growth and advancements in autonomous driving technology.

Bear Case: Tesla might miss earnings due to increased EV competition, production challenges, and uncertain returns from metaverse investments.

Which company will post the best quarter?

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📊 Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • American Express Q1 revenue jumped 11%, beating estimates and jolting stock prices up 6.2%.

  • An action-packed week of earnings. Here's who's reporting:

    • Monday: Albertsons (ACI), Nucor (NUE), SAP (SAP), Verizon (VZ)

    • Tuesday: General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), JetBlue (JBLU), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mattel (MAT), PepsiCo (PEP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Spotify (SPOT),Tesla (TSLA), UPS (UPS), Visa (V)

    • Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Chipotle (CMG), Ford (F), Humana (HUM), ADP (ADP), eBay (EBAY), Hilton (HLT), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW)

    • Thursday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), American Airlines (AAL), AstraZeneca (AZN), Intel (INTC), Roku (ROKU), Snap (SNAP), Southwest (LUV), T-Mobile (TMUS)

    • Friday: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate (CL)

Market movers

  • Nvidia plummeted 10% Friday, its worst day since March 2020, after Super Micro Computer delayed earnings.

  • Tesla slashed prices across its lineup in China, Germany, and other major markets after recent US cuts.

  • CNH appointed Iveco Group's Gerrit Marx as its new CEO starting July 1 to replace Scott Wine.

  • UBS announced plans to lay off 50-60% of Credit Suisse staff following the takeover.

  • Nike plans to lay off 740 employees at its Beaverton, Oregon headquarters by June 28.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • Freddie Mac slashed its home price forecast for 2024 and 2025.

  • The US dollar rallied to a 5-month high as surprisingly robust economic data bolstered the case for the Fed to keep rates elevated.

  • The global space economy is projected to skyrocket to $1.8 trillion by 2035, a 9% annual growth rate outpacing global GDP.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇮🇳 India's multi-week election kicked off with Prime Minister Narendra Modi widely expected to secure a third consecutive term in office.

  • 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran played down reported Israeli attacks and signaled no retaliation, a response gauged towards averting region-wide war.

  • 🇵🇹 🇳🇦 Portuguese oil company Galp Energia said the Mopane field could contain at least 10 billion barrels of oil.

  • 🇨🇳 Major rivers and reservoirs in China's Guangdong province are threatening to unleash dangerous floods.

📊 Crypto

  • Bitcoin's fourth halving slashed miner rewards to 3.125 BTC per block. Price volatility preceded the event, with BTC falling 4%.

  • Bitcoin miners are diversifying into AI and upgrading power centers to brace for the 50% revenue cut post-halving.

  • Hong Kong's Victory Securities disclosed fees ranging from 0.15% to 1% for its proposed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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